Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $817,503$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{841,147.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(841,147.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83,781$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,521.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 119.5)}}\) (asimptote \(84,521.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,508$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,762,546$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,969,956.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,969,956.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $214,768$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{206,676.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 88.7)}}\) (asimptote \(206,676.0\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,472,701$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $120,313$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,339.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.5)}}\) (asimptote \(125,339.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,491$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,654.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,654.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,658$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $184,403$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,303.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 78.7)}}\) (asimptote \(144,303.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,666$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,092.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,092.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,836$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $84,081$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,164.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.6)}}\) (asimptote \(84,164.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,512$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,609.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 132.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,609.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,557$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,439$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,440.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 190.9)}}\) (asimptote \(117,440.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,076$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,532.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 187.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,532.6\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,694$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $118,477$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,657.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(124,657.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,173$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,026.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 155.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,026.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,220$ on 2020-10-11
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $97,715$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,398.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 133.4)}}\) (asimptote \(97,398.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,384$ on 2020-10-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,321.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,321.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,749$ on 2020-10-11