Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Cuba

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $817,503$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{841,147.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(841,147.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83,781$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,521.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 119.5)}}\) (asimptote \(84,521.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,508$ on 2020-10-11

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,762,546$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,969,956.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,969,956.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $214,768$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{206,676.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 88.7)}}\) (asimptote \(206,676.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,472,701$ on 2020-10-11

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $120,313$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,339.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.5)}}\) (asimptote \(125,339.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,491$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,654.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,654.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,658$ on 2020-10-11

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $184,403$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,303.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 78.7)}}\) (asimptote \(144,303.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,666$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,092.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,092.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,836$ on 2020-10-11

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,081$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,164.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.6)}}\) (asimptote \(84,164.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,512$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,609.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 132.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,609.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,557$ on 2020-10-11

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,439$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,440.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 190.9)}}\) (asimptote \(117,440.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,076$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,532.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 187.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,532.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,694$ on 2020-10-11

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $118,477$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,657.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(124,657.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,173$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,026.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 155.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,026.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,220$ on 2020-10-11

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $97,715$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,398.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 133.4)}}\) (asimptote \(97,398.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,384$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,321.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,321.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,749$ on 2020-10-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 67%
Cuba recovered 63%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,196$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,156.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 124.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,156.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $890$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{888.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 122.7)}}\) (asimptote \(888.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,868$ on 2020-10-11

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,978$ on 2020-10-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(95.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $315$ on 2020-10-11